Brexit

The UK has issued a white paper.

It doesn’t work; it cherry picks and requires the EU to accept a customs arrangement which is harmful to them, and, profoundly, it does not solve the NI problem.

The PM has given up trying to solve the NI problem, as she should, because it cannot be solved within the constraints in operation : she has now asked the EU to change their requirements for NI, which is properly tantamount to asking Southern Ireland and EU to accept an open border with a third country.

This will never happen.

The Conservatives have already crossed the line such that their vote has split; they’ve lost 5% overnight, the UKIP have gained 5%.

Now, what it comes down to is this : the UK Government cannot present any plan which will command a majority. A hard Brexit will be blocked, a soft Brexit will be blocked. Neither approach solves the NI problem.

So now what?

Now the UK either crashes out with no deal, or, second referendum. I’d like to see a third option – rescind exiting until the Government has an accepted plan for leaving.

I read what I think was an perceptive comment about the whole matter : article 50 was triggered immediately after the referendum, when it should have been triggered only after a plan for leaving had been agreed.

It’s like selling your house before you’ve bought the next one.

My personal view is that with bureaucracy, the worst possible choice is *always* taken, and so it will be no deal.

If you hold Sterling, I advise you to change to a safe-haven currency, because a no deal exit will lop off probably 10% to 20% of the value of your currency holdings.

Disclosure : I now hold no Sterling. Most of my wealth is in Swiss Francs.