Brexit #3

The UK two days ago passed a specific law forbidding the construction of border infrastructure on the NI/SI border.

(I thought this was already the case due to Good Friday!)

The EU has rejected the UK suggestion that the UK as a whole remain within the EU customs union and in ‘full alignment’ with the single market.

(This proposal has a couple of fundamental flaws. First, ‘full alignment’ is not ‘in the single market’. So the UK wants in, but also while being out. EU says – no cherry picking. Second, this is a UK-wide solution to an NI-specific problem – and this is because of UK internal politics. EU says – this is an NI problem, the solution must be NI specific. You cannot have a solution to this problem which abrogates the UK departure from the EU and in effect allows cherry picking, because of your internal political concerns.)

SI flatly refuses a hard border between NI and SI and the EU is backing them up. The UK has two options – either NI stays in the EU, or this is not done, and there is no deal.

In the event of no deal, the EU will erect a border – it has to do so, you can’t have an open border to another sovereign State – and the UK will not. This won’t last for long, and the border will return. (That the UK has a law blocking this means nothing : they can make another law.)

The Conservative Party and the DUP do not directly suffer from this. It is extraordinarily bad for the people of NI and SI.

In the event NI remains in the EU, the DUP will not vote with the Conservatives, Labour can then vote against Brexit, block Brexit, split the Conservative vote, and get into power.

Labour however is led by someone profoundly detatched from reality. He may not take the opportunity presented to him and his party.

UK really is in a bad spot. It can leave the EU, or quite possibly get a hard-left Labour government.