Brexit

A no-deal exit will mean a hard border between Northern and Southern Island, which is absolutely unacceptable to everyone. It will mean a hard border because the EU will put a border there even if the UK does not : they cannot have an open border through which anything can come.

The and the only way to avoid a hard border is for Northern Island to remain in the EU.

This is utterly unacceptable – even more than a hard border – to the Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Island. They are a small party, ten MPs, who want Northern Island to be part of the UK. Where the Conservative Government in the UK is a minority Government, they currently give their ten votes to the Conservative Government, which by that has a majority.

They will not support a deal where Northern Island remains in the EU, so the Conservative Government will lose their majority when it comes to the vote on the exit deal.

This means then that the outcome will depend on how Labour votes.

Labour has entirely dodged the impossibilities of the EU problem by not having a hard opinion and not saying very much. They have been fairly vaguely supporting Brexit.

What will happen in fact is that Labour will vote against Brexit.

This will happen for two reasons.

Firstly, a large block of Labour voters are young, who are against Brexit. if Labour vote for Brexit, they alienate a large block of their supporters.

Secondly, the Brexit issue divides the Conservative Party – it led the anti-EU Conservatives to form the UK Independence Party, which split the Conservative vote. If the UK leaves the EU, it will unify the Conservative Party.

Labour are going to change their tune and end up being anti-Brexit, and they will vote against it, and their vote will lead to Brexit being blocked in Parliament.

This will revitalize the UK Independence Party, the Conservative vote will be split, and Labour will come to power.

The current Labour leadership are crazy-bonkers left-wing socialist, and they will once in power induce recession. Eventually the economy will be so badly off the Conservatives will be voted back in, and begin the long process of repairing the economy.